Gold prices and technicals:

• Gold was higher last week (XAU +1.1%, LBMA +1.2%), as markets were volatile, and the US 2/10 curve turned negative, which has historically often preceded a recession
• Gold prices are at all-time highs in over 20 countries and is up 8% this month and 19% this year in US dollars
• Gold is outperforming the S&P 500 on the year
• The gold price has consolidated near $1,500 which was anticipated given the psychological level and extreme open interest in futures at that price. That level could act as a magnet in the short-term.

Gold-backed ETF Flows:

• Overall, there were $922mn worth of inflows globally last week across all regions
• There have been $3.4bn of inflows so far in August also spread across the regions
• Asia has gained back all it outflows on the year, having added 10% this month and 1% on the year. Outflows were nearly 20% at one point
• Year-to-date flows surpassed $11bn as assets in global gold-backed ETFs have grown 8.4% this year
   

Global gold-backed ETF flows in 2019

Liquidity:

• COMEX net longs fell slightly but are nearly at all-time highs and are long 1,071 tonnes.
• Gold trading volumes are well above short- and long-term averages at $220bn a day this month. That is 92% above the 2018 average
• The Shanghai Futures Exchange volume continues to increase significantly, with daily volumes at $21bn, well above the ytd average of $7.0bn
• Futures open interest remains above $109bn this month, driven mostly by COMEX, and is 50% above the 2018 average

COMEX Net longs

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC