Dhanteras fails to boost gold sales in October

Summary

  • Indian gold imports were 38.3t in October 2019 – 15% lower than the same month last year
  • The domestic gold price rose by 3.1% during October, ending the month 22.4% higher than the end of 2018
  • With the festival of Dhanteras in October and onset of wedding season in November, the discount in the local market narrowed to US$3/oz by end of October from a discount of US$29.5/oz at end of September
  • Late withdrawal of the monsoon, with heavy rainfall in several states of India, damaged the kharif crops and more than 60% of kharif crops traded below the minimum support price (MSP) in October due to high moisture content and little progress in procurement of crops from government.

Posted 3 years 11 months ago

Gold demand in India continues its downward trajectory in September

  • Indian gold imports reached just 26.3t in September 2019 – 61% lower than the same month last year.
  • The domestic gold price was 2.4% lower in September compared to August, but 18.7% higher y-t-d.
  • With weak physical demand, the discount in the local gold market reached a peak of US$55/oz in September, but narrowed to US$29.5/oz by the end of the month.
  • Monsoon levels in 2019 are the highest for 25 years; Kharif sowing almost flat y-o-y.

Posted 4 years ago

Gold rally sours Indian demand in August

  • The domestic gold price was 10.3% higher in August compared to July, outpacing the LBMA gold price which rose by 7%
  • Indian gold imports reached just 28.2t in August 2019 – 70% lower than the same month last year and lowest level since January 2018
  • With elevated domestic gold prices and a higher custom duty, the discount in the local gold market widened out as far as US$55/oz in August
  • Monsoon rainfall is 5% above Long Period Average (LPA) with Kharif sowing just 0.2% lower than last year; normal monsoon and healthy sowing bodes well for rural gold demand in Q4 2019.

Posted 4 years 1 month ago

Higher prices and custom duty dampened Indian demand in July

  • Indian gold imports reached just 37.7t in July 2019 – 49% lower than the same month last year 
  • The domestic gold price was 2.3% higher in July compared to June; 23% higher y-t-d
  • The custom duty on gold was unexpectedly raised by 2.5% in the Union Budget on 5th July
  • With elevated domestic gold prices and a higher custom duty, the discount in the local gold market reached a peak of US$28/oz in July
  • Volatile prices and weak physical demand encouraged healthy gold futures trading on MCX: volumes touched a high of 46.8t in July

Posted 4 years 2 months ago

Higher domestic price and monsoon dents Indian gold demand in June

Summary

  • Indian gold imports were 62t in June 2019 – up slightly on the same month last year 
  • The domestic gold price was 6.1% higher in June as compared to end of May
  • With higher domestic gold prices, the local discount in the gold market reached $23/oz (1.6% to the international price) by end of June
  • Higher and relatively volatile prices encouraged gold futures trading on MCX: volumes touched a high of 28.2t in June 

Posted 4 years 3 months ago

India’s gold import duties rise

Summary

  • On 6th July, India’s gold import duty increased from 10% to 12.5% as part of a revenue-raising budget
  • We believe it will have a negligible long-term effect on gold demand
  • We think it may be a temporary measure: when the government’s books are in better shape we may see some of these tax increases rolled back
  • The market will be supported by other government initiatives, including the structural reforms such as the India Gold Spot Exchange and plans to boost rural incomes

Posted 4 years 3 months ago

Gold shines brighter on Akshaya Tritiya

Akshaya Tritiya is one of the most auspicious occasions in Hindu religion. The word Akshaya means ‘Eternal’ and Akshaya Tritiya is thus considered an auspicious day for, among other things, starting a business, buying a property or making an investment. Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya is believed to bring good fortune and prosperity. On the day itself, there is even a specific time period which is seen as auspicious for buying gold – the shubh muhurat.

Posted 4 years 6 months ago