Despite last week’s selloff, market shifts could bode well for gold prices

The stock market embraced the weakest one-week performance since the financial crisis last week on the back of growing concerns of the continued spread of the coronavirus across the globe. Despite the risk off-moves, gold was lower by more than 3% last week, which is historically unusual during these types of movements. There are a few potential reasons for the weakness.

Posted 3 years 8 months ago

ECB review signals little change in short-term

At the end of January, the new head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, announced the launch of a year-long strategic review of the bank’s monetary policy strategy. Stemming from this, there has been much discussion recently about the ECB’s existing “below but close to 2%” inflation target, and whether this needs to be made more specific, both in aim and measurement. 

Posted 3 years 8 months ago

Key trends to watch as we conclude 2019

As 2019 comes to an end and 2020 begins, we believe that:

  • Financial and geopolitical uncertainty combined with low interest rates will likely continue supporting gold investment demand
  • Net gold purchases by central banks will likely remain robust even if they are lower than the record highs seen in recent quarters
  • Momentum and speculative positioning may keep gold price volatility high
  • Gold price volatility and expectations of weaker economic growth may result in softer consumer demand near term
  • But structural economic reforms in India and China will support demand in the long term.

Note: our comprehensive annual Outlook will be published by mid-January 2020.

Posted 3 years 10 months ago

Currency crises, over-leverage and low rates – potential drivers of a gold bull market

The gold price has risen more than 15% this year against a backdrop of falling interest rates, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Dr Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist of China Industrial Bank, Chief Economist of Huafu Securities and Vice Chairman of China Industrial Bank Research Limited, looks back in time to forecast the future for gold.

Posted 3 years 11 months ago

Gold: thriving on lower interest rates

It’s old news that the world economy is suffering. Ongoing trade tensions between the US China (and elsewhere too), the draining Brexit saga, as well as a myriad of other geopolitical uncertainties, have taken their toll. Global growth is slowing, and investors are downbeat on world economic prospects. Recession in many major economies is now a real possibility... As a result, central banks around the world have been busy cutting rates.

Posted 4 years ago

BNP Paribas: The outlook for gold as Fed rates fall

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates twice in recent months and the market expects more of the same, as economic conditions become increasingly uncertain in the US and across the globe. Gold has already benefited from the shift in sentiment and Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, believes it will continue to do so.

Posted 4 years 1 month ago

Chinese gold premium hit six-year high in August

  • In August, Shanghai Gold Benchmark (PM) rose 11% to 355 yuan/gram and the local gold premium peaked at a six-year high.
  • While Au(T+D)’s trading volume in August surged to a new all-time high, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again last month.
  • Gold imports dropped to 44t in July, the lowest since 2017.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in August.

Posted 4 years 1 month ago

First Eagle Investment Management on gold’s contribution to an investment portfolio

First Eagle Investment Management is an independent firm with more than US$100 billion (bn) of assets under management and a heritage dating to 1864. Committed to prudent stewardship of clients’ assets, First Eagle believes that gold and gold-mining stocks can play a unique role as a potential hedge in investment portfolios. Thomas Kertsos, co-portfolio manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund, explains why in part one of a two-part interview; part two of this interview will be published 18 September.

Posted 4 years 1 month ago

Oil price jump highlights gold’s lower volatility

In our recently published report Gold: the most effective commodity investment, we looked at how gold is under-represented in the commodity indices investors often use to gain exposure. This can have unintended consequences on portfolio performance, especially when other commodities – such as oil – can have significantly different characteristics than gold.

Posted 4 years 1 month ago